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A review by lpm100
Snowball in a Blizzard: A Physician's Notes on Uncertainty in Medicine by Steven Hatch
5.0
Book Review
5/5 stars
Snowball in a Blizzard
Steven Hatch, MD
"Epistemic foundations of uncertainty in medicine with examples from current events."
Reviewed in the United States on July 1, 2016
This book is excellent.
And I will start with (what I believe to be) the best quote of the entire book (p. 84): "When health technologies are discussed in terms of righteousness, and aren't simply thought of as tools by which we might or might extend our lives, it becomes difficult to evaluate the technology for what it is. For screening mammograms are not, and never were a moral good: they are X-rays...."
In a way, this book to me reads like something that Nicholas Taleb would discuss (he of the The Black Swan ), but minus the babbling, expatiation and overweening ego.
There is a huge volume of topics covered in a readable way (and this is not an exhaustive list, nor a listing on the meat of each chapter):
1. Cost benefit/ Risk benefit;
2. False positive/ false negative;
3. Bayesian probability/ Uncertainty quantification;
4. Correlation vs. Causation;
5. Loss of information as a result of transmission (the easiest way to lose intact information is to talk about it), a la Thomas Sowell's Knowledge And Decisions ;
6. Types of studies (observational, cohort, double blind placebo controlled);
7. Discussion of the quantification of magnitude of some benefit;
8 Examples of overdiagnosis of cancers (i.e., higher number of diagnoses, but with a constant death rate).
There are even a few $5 words thrown in (armamentarium [p.128]/ frisson [p.129] /soporific [p. 242]) to build your vocabulary while reading this book.
There are even a few cute allusions (eg. "Guide to the Perplexed", p 212), the Brady Bunch (p. 244)
There is a good bibliography and appendix at the end of the book.
The bad (only one point):
The author keeps incessantly saying "more of this later" or "I'll explain this later." (pps 56, 93, 142, 163, 223-- and these are just the instances that I took the time to write down after it was starting to become a problem).
Verdict: Worth the time. Worth the money ($11.99 plus shipping, and this is from a person who does not usually pay more than $0.01 for a book). Strongly recommended to put a dent in the cloying ignorance of the public with respect to how to intelligently discuss medical matters
5/5 stars
Snowball in a Blizzard
Steven Hatch, MD
"Epistemic foundations of uncertainty in medicine with examples from current events."
Reviewed in the United States on July 1, 2016
This book is excellent.
And I will start with (what I believe to be) the best quote of the entire book (p. 84): "When health technologies are discussed in terms of righteousness, and aren't simply thought of as tools by which we might or might extend our lives, it becomes difficult to evaluate the technology for what it is. For screening mammograms are not, and never were a moral good: they are X-rays...."
In a way, this book to me reads like something that Nicholas Taleb would discuss (he of the The Black Swan ), but minus the babbling, expatiation and overweening ego.
There is a huge volume of topics covered in a readable way (and this is not an exhaustive list, nor a listing on the meat of each chapter):
1. Cost benefit/ Risk benefit;
2. False positive/ false negative;
3. Bayesian probability/ Uncertainty quantification;
4. Correlation vs. Causation;
5. Loss of information as a result of transmission (the easiest way to lose intact information is to talk about it), a la Thomas Sowell's Knowledge And Decisions ;
6. Types of studies (observational, cohort, double blind placebo controlled);
7. Discussion of the quantification of magnitude of some benefit;
8 Examples of overdiagnosis of cancers (i.e., higher number of diagnoses, but with a constant death rate).
There are even a few $5 words thrown in (armamentarium [p.128]/ frisson [p.129] /soporific [p. 242]) to build your vocabulary while reading this book.
There are even a few cute allusions (eg. "Guide to the Perplexed", p 212), the Brady Bunch (p. 244)
There is a good bibliography and appendix at the end of the book.
The bad (only one point):
The author keeps incessantly saying "more of this later" or "I'll explain this later." (pps 56, 93, 142, 163, 223-- and these are just the instances that I took the time to write down after it was starting to become a problem).
Verdict: Worth the time. Worth the money ($11.99 plus shipping, and this is from a person who does not usually pay more than $0.01 for a book). Strongly recommended to put a dent in the cloying ignorance of the public with respect to how to intelligently discuss medical matters